Turner looked slow and unable to break even arm tackles. He isn’t a threat to contribute in the passing game, so you’re only real hope is that he picks up enough touchdowns to stay fantasy relevant. The Falcons had eight snaps inside the Chiefs’ 10 yard line on Sunday and Turner had one carry. If you have a way to get rid of him for anything of value, do it now.
— Heath Cummings of Footballguys.com on Michael Turner’s slow start to the season in Week 1
If you were hurting for a tight end, Week 7 is the week to snatch one up off the waiver wire. Don’t sleep on these options.
Tight End Party
FRED DAVIS (Redskins)
With Chris Cooley shattering his finger (ouch) on Sunday, Davis stands to see a lot more passes his way in this Redskins’ offense. Assuming John Beck takes over, he may have less of a tendency to throw a cannon downfield like Rex Grossman was prone to do.
JAKE BALLARD (Giants)
The Giants found themselves a tight end this season. After two solid weeks of top-10 production, Ballard is a must-add for any tight end needy team. He’s on bye this week, which might make him more costly to grab in a popular bye week, but I believe he’ll be worth the sacrifice.
LANCE KENDRICKS (Rams)
An early-season sleeper of mine, Kendricks finally flipped the switch this week and had a nice game with 70+ yards. We, of course, would like to see more out of him before we buy-in completely again, but he’ll cost you a lot more to add once he goes off for a big game. We’ll have to see how Brandon Lloyd changes the passing game in St. Louis and how much of a drop it takes while A.J. Feeley fills in for Sam Bradford (high ankle sprain).
Rest of the Field
DEMARCO MURRAY (Cowboys)
Felix Jones will miss a few weeks with a high ankle sprain, and in his absence, Murray got the majority of carries. He’ll likely share time with Tashard Choice, but he faces a very nice schedule, starting with the Rams in Week 7.
CARSON PALMER (Bengals…RAIDERS!)
It looks like the Raiders have managed to pry Palmer out of the Bengals’ hands. While he’s faded as a starter in recent years, Palmer’s a big upgrade over Kyle Boller and possibly even an upgrade over Jason Campbell. We can’t be sure how he’ll do until we see him hit the field, but with Oakland’s receiving talents (Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford, and Denarius Moore) are hitting their stride and a running game to take the pressure off him, Palmer could have immediate QB2 value. I’d stash him for now until we know the trade is final and until we see him in real game action.
GREG LITTLE (Browns)
He started for the first time on Sunday, and Colt McCoy targeted him plenty. While the Browns aren’t the most potent of offenses, it never hurts to own a team’s No. 1 guy.
JEROME SIMPSON (Bengals)
A.J. Green’s getting a lot of attention in Cincinnati, but Simpson’s had a couple of nice weeks as well. If you’re looking for a WR3 with upside, take a chance on Simpson.
ARRELIOUS BENN (Bucs)
Tampa Bay’s Mike Williams has been a disappointment thus far, as has the entire Bucs’ passing game. But Benn’s shown promise with the few touches he’s received. In the last two weeks, he scored big against the Saints and had another near touchdown negated by penalty. He had a quiet first few weeks as he was returning from his injury last season, but now his run after the catch ability looks 100 percent. If you’re looking for a WR3 on the rise, Benn’s looking like a nice grab. Just note that he’s a boom-bust guy. You’ll have to play matchups with him.
MARK CLAYTON / DANARIO ALEXANDER (Rams)
Brandon Lloyd’s arrival in St. Louis makes Mark Clayton’s return from the PUP a tad less exciting. It also demotes Danario Alexander to a specialty role again. Still, both receivers should find a way to have an impact, and the Rams schedule gets easier down the stretch. Clayton was Sam Bradford’s favorite target before his injury last season, but unfortunately, it’ll be A.J. Feeley under center for several weeks until Bradford’s back on the field. We can’t be sure who Feeley will favor, but it’s likely we see Lloyd and Clayton as the starters in St. Louis after a few weeks. Alexander, for now, is back to being a stash in redraft until we know how much he’ll see the field with these two back, but he’s still got a huge ceiling when he’s healthy.
DEMARYIUS THOMAS (Broncos)
With Lloyd moving on to the Rams, Thomas should become a starter alongside Eric Decker. He’s returning from a broken finger he suffered in the preseason. Thomas has had a hard time staying on the field, but his measurables make him a worthy gamble. I wouldn’t drop Eric Decker for him, but I’d gladly stash him and hope for the best if all other waiver wire options were taken.
If you’ve stashed Sidney Rice away on your bench waiting for his triumphant return to fantasy football studliness, it’s time to drop him. Let him go. Let someone else burn that candle, sacrificing a roster spot for almost the entire season in hopes that he will return to dominance for their playoff push.
You need reasons? Oh, I got reasons.
1. Brett Favre is a broken man.
In case you haven’t heard, Brett Favre is not 100 percent. He’s hurt. He’s old. He’s got just a little bit left in the tank, and unfortunately, that little bit isn’t getting it done for the Vikings. Even with Randy Moss, he’s not that excited about life. Do you really want to trust Favre to make Sidney Rice valuable enough to hold on to for almost an entire season of no production? Favre could start the retirement talk by Week 8.
2. The Vikings don’t look good.
Last season, Rice was dominant because the Vikings were great. Percy Harvin was available to distract the secondary. Visanthe Shiancoe was making plays across the middle and down the field. And then there’s that little known workhorse named Adrian Peterson there to churn out yardage. Even Chester Taylor contributed by protecting Favre as well as any back in the game could. This year, they’re not looking so hot. The offense is struggling, Favre isn’t performing as expected, and Percy Harvin is on and off the field with migraines. Without all those playmakers at 100 percent, can Sidney Rice get anything done? Look at Calvin Johnson. Sometimes he’s excellent…and sometimes he’s non-existent. You need a supporting cast.
3. Randy Moss
But wait…Sidney Rice has a supporting cast. He’s going to share the field with Randy Moss. Well, about that…Randy Moss will get his. I don’t know that Sidney Rice will have enough leftover for his fantasy owners. As the veteran, well established in the offense by the time Rice takes the field, Moss will remain the No. 1 guy. Being in the mix with Harvin and Shiancoe, Rice could end up being the No. 3 or 4 target in this offense when he is healthy. And just trading for Moss in the first place might be a hint that Rice’s recovery isn’t on schedule for a Week 9 return.
4. Week 10
A roster spot is a terrible thing to waste. Even if Rice returns in Week 9, stashing him for an entire season is going to cost you waiver wire pickups. It’s going to cost you bye week adjustments. And it’s going to cost you wins. Is he worth it? If the Vikings don’t make a lot of progress over the next few weeks, Brad Childress could decide to put Rice on IR and shut Rice down for the rest of the season to rest up for 2011. That would free up a roster spot for the Vikings to work with until the end of the year and make your Sidney Rice stash worthless.
5. Packers, Redskins, Bills, Giants, Bears, Eagles (Lions W17)
That’s the schedule the Vikings face after Week 10. So if you’re saving Sidney Rice, you’re saving him for these matchups. Sure, the Redskins and Bills might look good on paper. The Giants and Packers have the potential to be shootouts, but none of these games are pushovers. Even the Bills have a decent secondary — enough to give a team like the Vikings trouble unless they’re firing on all cylinders. Week 16 vs. the Eagles is no game to hang a championship on either. If the Eagles get their defense back in shape, they’ll be coming after Favre all day.
So it’s time, my friend. Time to let him go. Maybe you can trade him to the highest bidder for a quality backup wide receiver. Don’t let his value go to waste if you don’t have to, but please don’t keep him on your bench if you need that roster spot. It won’t do you much good.
Randy Moss returned to the Minnesota Vikings yesterday as the latest victim of the Patriot Way, the “get out while we can still get draft picks for you” way. After all, there is no “pay” in Patriot…err, wait, that doesn’t seem right.
While there is no “I” in team, there are two in Belichick. Above all, he believes in his system. The Patriots will go back to the team mentality they had before Moss, and they’ll have to rely on a lot of young potential stars like Brandon Tate and Aaron Hernandez.
On the flip side of that, Minnesota is pulling out all the stops to get Moss in the fold and on the field against the Jets in Week 5. The contrast is pretty incredible. The Patriots continue to get younger and stockpile draft picks, as is their custom. The Vikings just forked over draft picks to take on another big name, aging veteran to help Brett Favre, their other big name, aging veteran, win now.
For you Moss owners, I don’t think this trade changes much. He’s still a No. 1 target in a nice passing offense. Old Favre is no Tom Brady, but he can get Moss the ball down the field at least once or twice a game. Usually, that’s all Moss needs. He might even be more consistent if Favre forces it to him each week.
On top of that, since the Vikings are already coming off of their bye, Moss owners will have him available for all 17 games of the season — no bye week. Lucky you, although you might have thought that he took his bye last week against the Dolphins.
Brandon Tate will probably replace Moss in the Pats’ lineup, and while he won’t draw as much attention as Moss did in the passing game, he’s quick enough to take on those long routes and do some damage. He may also share time with Julian Edelman, but we’ll have to see how the Pats use each post-Moss.
The biggest fantasy value winner, in my opinion, is Aaron Hernandez. Wes Welker loses out with this deal because he’ll get a lot more attention now that Moss isn’t there to distract opposing defenses. But Hernandez was one of the Pats leading pass-catchers before this trade, and he should continue to play an important role without the immediate attention that may affect other Patriot weapons.
The Pats have moved to a more tight end friendly offense this season than what they used last season with rookies Ron Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez both playing important roles in the passing game. Hernandez is worth owning now, and Gronkowski is worth keeping an eye on. He’s developing into Brady’s favorite red zone receiver.
Tom Brady now becomes a little more ordinary, but New England won’t fall apart. Brady may have fewer touchdowns, but he’ll continue to throw as much as necessary to win games. He’ll stay among the top 10 at quarterback.
Danny Woodhead intrigues me with Moss gone. He’s scored in both his games so far as a Patriot and could play a larger role in the Patriots passing game, depending on how Belichick makes the adjustments. If Wes Welker can’t be Wes Welker, those short passes have to go to someone else.
I don’t believe the Pats will go after Vincent Jackson now that they’ve stocked up on draft picks, but they certainly could if the asking price drops. Belichick will never overpay. Unless you have him on your bench already, I wouldn’t go after Jackson. We have no idea what shape he’ll be in if he actually returns to a team at all this year.
In Minnesota, Moss immediately becomes the No. 1 guy. He’ll take some of the heat off Percy Harvin, Visanthe Shiancoe and Adrian Peterson, but his passes and touchdowns will also take away from the rest of the Minnesota offense. Adrian Peterson should have more room to run, but it could be Moss catching the touchdown every now and then or taking those passes A.P. has been getting a lot of lately.
Brett Favre stands to play a little better, and he could even become a starter the rest of the way post-bye and with Moss (and with a chance of Sidney Rice returning later in the year).
Of course, Rice owners have to hate this news. This trade means that Rice will have to share targets with Moss when (and if ) Rice returns from injury this year. The Vikings might know something they’re not sharing yet. Maybe Rice isn’t coming back this year. But regardless, his value takes a huge hit with another top receiver in the mix.
At least it’s safe to say you can drop Bernard Berrian if you’ve been punishing yourself by holding onto him.
Hungry for more intel? How about a plethora of fantasy trade analysis from around the Web? Here you go:
- The FF Geek Blog (a Pats fan) on bump for Brandon Tate, future of Pats wide receivers — maybe Vincent Jackson?
- Drew Magary tries to make sense of it all. While I totally see this move the same way he does from the Vikings’ perspective, I can’t agree with him that this is Pats giving up on the season. I think this is the Pats’ way of playing smart. They knew they wouldn’t sign Moss to an extension, so why not get a pick or two out of the deal? They want to see what Brandon Tate and the rest of their young receivers and tight ends can do.
- I’m not as optimistic about the Vikings’ offense with Randy Moss as FF Toolbox.
- Chris Liss talks Randy Moss’ value at Rotosynthesis and how the Pats will spread the wall. Tom Brady definitely drops, but the Pats always seem to make it work.
- KFFL touches on why the Patriots no longer needed Moss
- Fantasy Joe goes player-by-player on how this move changes fantasy value. Aaron Hernandez will probably be the biggest winner of this deal. Well, Hernandez and Favre, I guess, who now has an excuse to throw the long ball all day.
- The Hazean notes the damage this trade does to the rest of the Vikings’ offense.
- Roto Arcade warns that you shouldn’t go nuts trying to acquire the Patriots’ upgraded receivers (Tate, Edelman)
- FF Today points out that this trade hits Sidney Rice stashers pretty hard, even though Favre will have no complaints
- Fanhouse thinks Visanthe Shiancoe is the biggest loser, but you could always go out and grab Aaron Hernandez now if he’s available. Consolation prize? Not a bad one.
At this point in the season, you might be more concerned with getting to the playoffs than succeeding once you get there. That’s okay. Take it one week at a time. I’ll wait…
But if you have the true heart of a champion, some good luck, and if you’ve been doing your research, you’ve probably go a nice spot on the mantel dusted and ready for this year’s fantasy football championship trophy. It’s okay if we block this photo of the in-laws, right?
In that case, it’s best to start planning for your future, and we’re not talking about your kids’ college funds or your financial plan to navigate this tough economy.
It’s even better. I give you a fantasy football roundtable of epic proportions. This week’s Fourth & 1 Debate was mine to rule, and I chose to look ahead at who might blow up or sink your battleship during Weeks 14-17.
By the way, if you have a playoff schedule that puts your championship game in Week 17, slap your commissioner, reschedule that game immediately, slap your commish again, and never, never speak of playing in Week 17 again. Week 17 isn’t NFL football. It’s just not right to win your league with Jim Sorgi. Not right at all.
This week’s Fourth & 1 Debate roundtable question:
Looking ahead at the fantasy football playoffs (Weeks 14-17), what one player would you want to own during those weeks and what one player would you want to unload before Week 14?
Trade deadlines are approaching. Playoffs spots will be locked up soon. The chances to acquire players through “sell high” or “buy low” opportunities are few are far between. That being the case, I’ve chosen to focus on a couple of guys who might still be easily moved. You wouldn’t have to break the bank, and you might end up with a stud on your hands in Weeks 14 through 16.
First, I’d look to acquire Tim Hightower.
Kurt Warner has been fond of the check-down passes thus far this season, and Hightower has been the beneficiary. Even against tough rushing defenses, Hightower never fails to stay involved in the passing game and take advantage of short-yardage and goal line opportunities.
It’d be great to have both Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower on your roster to hedge your bets against any late-season shifts in Beanie’s favor, but I believe Hightower will remain the primary receiving back on passing plays, which the Cardinals should be running plenty of in the fantasy playoffs.
The Cardinals face San Francisco, Detroit and St. Louis in the fantasy playoffs. In Week 1 against the 49ers, Hightower ran just eight times for 15 yards, but he caught 12 passes for 121 yards. A similar performance in Week 14 wouldn’t surprise me, and, well, the Lions and Rams are what they are, great matchups for a team with a powerful offense. By the end of this season, one or both of those squads could have already given up for the year.
If you can’t get Hightower, Beanie Wells, Jamaal Charles and Jerome Harrison aren’t bad substitutions. All have a chance to succeed late in the season, and they all carry a fairly low price tag at this point. Bargain bin!
And, for those of you playing at home, I would try to unload DeAngelo Williams before the fantasy playoffs.
Williams finished the year as the No. 1 fantasy running back after a slow start, and he’s once again been inconsistent to start the year in 2009. It’s not just Jonathan Stewart stealing time and touches from him. This year, Jake Delhomme has developed a bad habit of throwing to players in other jerseys.
While Williams is come on strong the past three weeks, he should hit a slump starting in Week 11 against Miami and continuing, outside of a brief practice session against the Bucs in Week 13, into the fantasy playoffs. In Week 14, Williams faces the Patriots in New England, followed by the Vikings at home and the Giants in New York for the Giants’ last home game of the season.
If you’re a proud Williams owner, you should deal him away to the highest bidder this week or next before you get stuck in the dumps with him during the playoffs.
Smitty from Fantasy Football Xtreme says:
Every season, a grip of players step up during Weeks 14-16, while others shockingly disappoint. It’s a tough business predicting either, but I have come up with two names. I have talked a lot about running backs and wide receivers over the past few weeks, so this week I’m going to focus on quarterbacks.
One quarterback worth talking about before we even sniff Weeks 14-16 is Kurt Warner. The aging quarterback has been hit or miss this season, and he has thrown 7 interceptions over the past three games putting him at 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on the year. He has also fumbled the football twice over the last three weeks.
You’re probably guessing that Warner is my “unload” recommendation for Weeks 14-16, right? Wrong.
While I will admit that I have concerns about the aging quarterback staying healthy long enough to see Week 14, he has a fantastic fantasy playoff schedule. The Cardinals face the 49ers (28th) in Week 14, the Lions (29th) in Week 15 and Rams (24th) in Week 16. If healthy, Warner should have a fantastic finish to the fantasy season.
As for my top quarterback to unload before we hit Week 14, I have to go with Carson Palmer.
The Bengals passing schedule isn’t impossible, as they have two decent match-ups in Weeks 14 and 16 in the Vikings (23rd) and Chiefs (29th), but they do have a rough contest against the Chargers (6th) in Week 15. I know Palmer had a monster 5-touchdown performance before his Week 8 bye, where he completed 20-of-24 passes, but before that Week 7 outing, Palmer’s completion percentage was under 60 and he had almost as many interceptions (7) as he had touchdowns (8).
On the year, Palmer has yet to pass for over 300 yards. His Week 7 stats are making him look strong, but I’m predicting that he and the Bengals struggle down the stretch. I say unload Palmer now and take a lateral step into a quarterback with less risk.
Trade Palmer for a Ben Roethlisberger or a Matt Ryan. Both quarterbacks probably have similar perceived value, yet I like both better than Palmer down the stretch (especially in Weeks 14-16).
Junkyard Jake from Junkyard Jake says:
Glancing ahead to the fantasy playoff weeks this year, it appears that Drew Brees and the Saints’ passing game could benefit from a very favorable set of defensive matchups. During Weeks 14 through 16, the Saints face Atlanta on the road and then Dallas and Tampa Bay at home.
As if Brees needed an additional advantage, all three of these games will be in a dome. Moreover, all three of these defenses currently rank in the bottom third of the league in terms of points allowed by opposing quarterbacks.
In contrast to Brees’s favorable playoff schedule, it looks like the Bears’ Matt Forte could have a tougher time. Forte is already having a slightly disappointing season, and it doesn’t appear that he will catch a break during the fantasy playoff Weeks of 14, 15 and 16 when he is slated to face Green Bay, Baltimore and then Minnesota.
Green Bay has been allowing only 91 rush yards per game, and they have yielded just 3 rushing touchdowns so far. Forte’s Week 15 opponent, Baltimore, has allowed just 79 yards per game on the ground. Forte then faces the Vikings in Week 16, a team that touts the No. 2 run defense in the league.
Hatty from Hatty Waiver Wire Guru says:
So essentially we are looking at a buy low/sell high for the playoff run. Having the right RB for the playoffs is a huge key to victory and health is a major consideration for playoff runs.
My sell high right now would be LaDainian Tomlinson. He is coming off a two-touchdown performance, but again is a huge injury concern. You just can’t afford to go into playoffs with one of your top running backs leaving due to injury.
The running back I would work hard to obtain for the playoffs would be a running back who receives a major workload on a team making a run for the playoffs. Cedric Benson helped me to win a fantasy championship in the past and is a stellar running back to go into playoffs with. He is not prone to injury, doesn’t play in an RBBC situation and is on a team that has a solid chance at making the playoffs.
Ryan Lester from Lester’s Legends says:
Looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, there are a couple of wide receivers that I would love to own and one that I want no part of.
The wide receivers that I love for the fantasy playoffs are Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson. Aside from being two of the best wide receivers in the game, there are some other reasons that make them so valuable when fantasy owners need them the most.
First of all, neither team is running away with their division meaning they will likely go full tilt the whole season as they vie for a playoff spot. While wide receivers like Reggie Wayne and Marques Colston are in the driver’s seat of their respective divisions, Fitz and A.J. are not. It’s conceivable that Wayne and Colston get a reduced workload in your league’s championship game. You don’t have to worry about that with Fitz or A.J.
They also have favorable schedules in the fantasy playoffs. Fitz plays at San Francisco, at Detroit and finishes at home against St. Louis. Week 14 could be tough for him, but the final two games could bring the monster performances you expected out of Fitz when you drafted him.
Andre Johnson’s schedule is also a breeze. He starts off at home against Seattle, travels to St. Louis and finishes at Miami. Obviously, I don’t like his championship opponent as much as Fitz, but if he leads you to the title game, you’re in the money anyway.
On the flip side, the player I don’t want on my team come fantasy playoffs time is Carolina’s Steve Smith.
The Panthers start off on the road at New England. Weather is very much a factor in New England in December, which doesn’t bode well for members of the passing game. Next up is Minnesota at home. The pressure that Jared Allen and company put on opposing quarterbacks could make for a long day. Finally, he finishes up against the Giants on the road in the swirling winds.
Smith faces three of the best teams in the league, two in what are likely to be bad-weather games, during the fantasy playoffs. Not to mention he plays in a run-first offense. If I were a Steve Smith owner and had championship aspirations, I’d try to move him now that he’s coming off a pair of good games.
Eric Stashin of Rotoprofessor says:
One of the players I would like to own down the stretch is Michael Turner of the Atlanta Falcons.
Fantasy football playoffs are tough because if you have a player who is on a team that is coasting into the playoffs, you just don’t know how much they are going to play. With the Falcons, they are three games behind the division lead already, but they are primed for a dogfight to take home the wild card.
In addition, the Falcons take on the New Orleans Saints (middle of the road in rushing defense), New York Jets (sans their big run stuffer, Kris Jenkins), the Buffalo Bills (currently allowing the most rushing yards per game in the league) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (need I say anymore).
That seems like the perfect set-up for a big way to close the season. He’s one of the best backs in the league, and if you are in a position to acquire him for the stretch drive, there is no reason to hesitate.
As for players to avoid, you almost have to look at the flip side: Which team appears to be ready to coast into the playoffs as well as having a tough schedule?
The Minnesota Vikings could be that team, as they have a lead in the division and have the Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears and New York Giants on the schedule over the final four weeks. Three of those four teams are likely to be in contention for a playoff spot. The easiest game (Panthers) is on the road, as is the game in Chicago, so you don’t know what will happen there.
The likelihood is that the team focuses on the run, as they’ve already shown that they will do, meaning Brett Favre and the Vikings receivers may struggle down the stretch.
Paul Greco from Fantasy Pros 911 says:
I love looking ahead. Why you ask? Well, if I’m looking ahead to Weeks 14 through 17, that means I have a shot at the playoff. Yup, I’m about to make it rain in the Greco household.
The one player that I’d like to unload, not only during the Weeks 14 through 17, but right now, is Carolina Panther’s running back DeAngelo Williams. Coming off a huge game on the ground in Week 8, right now is the time to look to unload Williams.
Starting Week 11, Williams has the toughest Strength-of-Schedule (SOS) the rest of the season. With games against the Miami Dolphins (Week 11), New York Jets (Week 12), New England Patriots (Week 14) and the Minnesota Vikings (Week 15), all four teams are currently ranked in the top 10 for rush defense.
Cedric Benson, running back for the Cincinnati Bengals, is a player you must look to add to your team now. C.B. has the easiest SOS of any running back starting Week 11.
With games against the Oakland Raiders (Week 11), Cleveland Browns (Week 12), Detroit Lions (Week 13), San Diego Chargers (Week 15) and the Kansas City Chiefs (Week 16), all five teams give up an average of 117 rushing yards a game or worse.
C.B. has shown he can carry the load for the Bengals, so why not your team? Look to make a move for CB now, and enjoy big gains the rest of the season.
Bryce McRae from KFFL says:
My pickup for the playoffs: the Kansas City Chiefs’ Kolby Smith (knee). He’s a deep sleeper, yes, but it shouldn’t cost much to get him, and he could pay huge dividends.
Starter Larry Johnson’s suspension ends after Week 9, but the team has given some thought to releasing him. At some point, they have to start looking toward the future.
Jamaal Charles, a third-round pick last year, is expected to shoulder most of the load this week. He’s more of a speedy change-of-pace back, however, and the Chiefs have utilized him as a rusher only 23 times this year. A lot of that has come out of passing downs, too.
This leads us to Smith; the third-year back has carried a full workload in the past (Weeks 12 through 16 in 2007: 100 carries for 387 yards and two scores), and he says he has confidence in his rehabilitated knee. Head coach Todd Haley says Smith is moving around well in practice, too. Smith has the bulk (5-foot-11, 219 pounds) that could help him hold up as a primary back over the speedier Charles.
Kansas City faces the Buffalo Bills (most rushing yards allowed per game to backs this year), the Cleveland Browns (third most) and the Cincinnati Bengals in Weeks 14 through 16, respectively. Cincy isn’t a great matchup, but Smith could be a beast during those two first games.
On the flip side, one player I’m looking to unload before the playoffs is the San Francisco 49ers’ Michael Crabtree. I don’t have much faith in Alex Smith behind center for the long term. I feel defenses might be able to shut down Crabtree, too, once they have more film on him and how the 49ers are using him. Remember: This is still a run-first offense.
Also, I don’t believe his value will be any higher after his first three games. Wait for him to burn the Tennessee Titans, a generous defense to this position, in Week 9 and then sell high on the former Texas Tech wideout.
The defenses Crabtree will face in the traditional playoffs weeks: the Detroit Lions (Week 14), the Arizona Cardinals (Week 15) and the Philadelphia Eagles (Week 16). Philly’s D has been one of the top against this position all season while the other two have shown improvement in the last month. Plus, Detroit’s run D has been bad enough that San Fran might opt to pound the ball.
Kurt Turner from Top-Fantasy-Football says:
Strength of schedule is key when planning for the fantasy football playoffs. Teams like Arizona, San Diego and Miami all have juicy matchups. FFToolbox.com has a nice tool you can use found here that analyzes matchups by position for you.
Here are my picks to own and unload: Kurt Warner and Roddy White.
Snatch up Kurt Warner. He should be a beast in the playoffs. Trade for him now and don’t be afraid to overpay, especially if you’re hurting at quarterback.
A guy I don’t like for the playoffs is Roddy White. White faces some tough pass defenses weeks 14, 15 and 16. If you can get Warner for White (and some change) and still have some other good options at wide receiver, I’d do it in a heartbeat. Good Luck!
That’s all for this week’s Fourth & 1 Debate. While I am largely a fan of riding hot hands into the ground rather than trading them away because of perceived slumps on the horizon, preparing for the fantasy football playoffs is a necessity.
Oh, and if you have a championship game in Week 17, slap your commish again for me.
As always, the comments are yours. Have a player you’re concerned about for the fantasy playoffs? Would you like to add more names to the hat of players to add/drop? Leave a comment to let us know.
It happens to the best of us. Sometimes teams don’t work out. You draft Darren McFadden higher than you should have — grumble grumble. You put the hopes of your fantasy team on a sleeper like Matt Cassel, who hasn’t panned out yet.
Maybe your team is putting up mad amounts of points, but you just happen to be playing the highest scoring team every week. Lady Luck must hate you. If that’s the case, maybe you don’t need to do anything with your team in order for them to rock the rest of the season.
But some of you out there, you’re 0-5 or maybe 1-4, and it’s time to get tough. You’re a little far from the playoff picture, but all is not lost. You just need to reshape your team.
Last week, we discussed what to do if you were 1-3 or 2-2 in your league in the Week 5 Fourth & 1 debate, a fantasy football roundtable that I’ve been participating in every week. Last week’s debate was hosted by Fantasy Pros 911.
In addition to the excellent tips there on how to rebuild your roster and not panic too much, The Hazean gave some fantabulous advice on where to turn if you were 0-3. Most of that still applies.
Sadly, 0-5 or 1-4 is an even bigger beast. You need to make something happen, and it needs to happen fast.
So how do you save your fantasy hopes?
1. Drop any sleeper pick that hasn’t broken out yet.
I don’t care if he went to high school with you, married you or otherwise impressed you in the preseason. If the points aren’t on the board, you need to get them off your team.
You don’t have the time to wait around anymore. If he’s that great, you can fight for him on the waiver wire when he breaks out.
2. Shop your best player and take the best offer you get.
Yes, Chris Johnson is amazing. He could go off in any game, but if he isn’t enough to carry your team, he’s no use to you. I’ve seen many a team struggle through the season with a stud at running back or quarterback and refusing to trade even if it would allow them to have a more balanced team.
Take one stud and turn him into two lesser studs. If you get another owner to buy high on your studs while you buy low on a few of his that are performing nicely, you instantly get a better squad.
3. Replace your flukes with more responsible choices
Hines Ward isn’t flashy, but he gets yardage. DeSean Jackson could just as easily get you zero as he could 27. You need reliable starters from this point, so don’t be afraid to let your more daring team members serve you as trade bait.
If you start three wide receivers, you just want your WR3 to be a lock for 8-10 points every week. That’s all you need to stay consistent. If you can get a WR2 who puts up 10-15, that’ll serve to replace the Jeremy Maclin, Miles Austin or DeSean Jackson who was winning and losing battles for you on a weekly basis.
It’s always good to get the guys who you know will get carries (Jamal Lewis) or catches (Muhsin Muhammed) involved, even if they aren’t going to win you a game. Hopefully, you have enough strength at each position that putting up an average amount of points each week from here on out will get you a win…as long as you’re lucky.
Trust me, at this point, all you can hope for is lucky.
4. Practice voodoo.
Maybe you can curse your way into a championship?
Okay, not likely, but you might be able to will a bad game onto your opponent’s studs each week. Just stare at his or her players anytime they are in the game and root for a fumble or two. If you get really close to the TV, it will probably work better, and you’ll be so fun at all the pregame parties.
5. Work the waiver wire like you mean it.
I publish a waiver wire post every week. There’s always a player or two who jumps in value for two to three weeks or for the rest of the season. You need to have them all on your team. Always get better. Always work harder than the next guy.
You must own the waiver wire. You have the next two weeks to find players who haven’t been claimed yet and watch for the ones who break out. Maybe, just maybe, a stud like the 2007 incarnation of Ryan Grant will emerge from the pack to save your playoff hopes.
If not, there’s always the Sunday afternoon matinee, right?
Some will say not to get rid of the superstar wide receiver, but Terrell Owens’ time to make an impact in Buffalo is running out. As the season goes on and the weather in Buffalo turns colder, the Bills’ passing game is at the mercy of the elements.
For the past two years, Lee Evans has seen his numbers decline in late November and December when the running game and Marshawn Lynch are far more effective than Trent Edwards, who turns into a pumpkin midseason.
Granted, Edwards hasn’t been concussed this season…yet, but Edwards hasn’t proven he can finish strong for the Bills either. This season, he hasn’t even started strong.
So if you’re a T.O. owner, things could get worse, much worse. T.O. could see the same drop Lee Evans has had as Buffalo looks to the running game at home, but I guess if you look at it on the bright side, there isn’t much of a drop for his numbers to take since Edwards has squandered the talent in the passing game thus far.
If T.O. can’t get productive this month — and by this month, I mean this week — the window is going to start closing fast for him to have any value this season.
Not to mention, as old as T.O. is, the cold may make him more prone to injury, slower to heal or otherwise limit his playmaking ability. T.O. takes care of himself. He’s a quick healer, but Owens has never played a full season for a cold weather team like Buffalo.
So that’s the real concern if you’re holding onto T.O. It’s not that he hasn’t produced so far; it’s that he might run out of time to produce at all if he doesn’t get going soon.
If you have any offers on the table to take T.O. off your hands, I’d take the best one. He may have a few spectacular games in him this year, but I’d rather not be tasked with determining when or if it will happen for him.
If you have no offers, you’re stuck with him. All you can do is hope that he gets it together sooner rather than later.
Coming off the heels of allegations that he assaulted a friend of LeBron James and a Week 4 game in which Braylon Edwards caught absolutely nothing, it’s surprising to see him be swept away to the New York Jets in a trade this morning.
In exchange, the Jets sent the Browns young receiver Chansi Stuckey, a special teamer and two draft picks.
Edwards looked like one of the top targets in the NFL in 2007 as he and Derek Anderson, coming off the bench to replace Charlie Frye, became fantasy superstars. Edwards ended the season with 16 touchdowns, and many fantasy football pros drafted him beside names like Randy Moss the following season when both Anderson and Edwards disappointingly regressed back to the usual for the Cleveland Browns.
Drowning in mediocrity, Edwards now gets his shot at the big time. He’s always enjoyed the spotlight, and New York should provide him with plenty of that as he tries to make a name for himself as a true top-flight receiver and earn a big money contract for 2010 and beyond. His rookie deal comes to an end this season unless the Jets give him a new contract.
There’s still the pesky matter of a potential suspension for Edwards, but the punishment would likely not be enforced until 2010 once the league is done investigating the incident. The Jets weren’t concerned enough to pass on acquiring him.
Now all the eyes in New York are on Braylon Edwards to overcome his recent bouts of dropsies and prove his 2007 season was no fluke. Much will be expected of him as has been expected of Mark Sanchez, who hasn’t disappointed much in his first four games as a pro.
Fantasy Impact on Edwards/Jets
While Edwards will most likely be happier in New York and possibly more open down the field for the Jets, his fantasy value should remain about the same for several weeks. He still has to learn the offense and find his rhythm with Mark Sanchez. There’s always a danger that Edwards, like Roy Williams in 2008, disappears in this offense until he can find his stride, but the Jets will try to incorporate him as best they can.
Edwards’ owners should keep their expectations in check. Remember that Sanchez is a rookie quarterback on a defensive-minded team. Sanchez’s going to play it safe most of the time, but having the option to take shots down field should open more things up in the Jets’ offense. Edwards is likely to take the No. 1 role from Jerricho Cotchery in this offense and clear the middle of the field for Dustin Keller. As always, more danger down the sides of the field should help Thomas Jones and Leon Washington find running lanes.
Overall, it’s an upgrade for Edwards and for the entire Jets’ offense, including Mark Sanchez. Edwards should be owned in all leagues already, but pick him up if someone gave up on him too soon.
If you want to trade for Edwards, wait a week or two until the trade hype and his first two quiet games have passed, and buy him low before he really does something in the Jets’ offense. He shouldn’t become a factor right away, but he could have WR2 or WR3 value by season’s end.
Fantasy Impact on Browns
Chansi Stuckey isn’t much in the fantasy department. Brett Favre took a liking to him near the red zone last season, but this season, Stuckey has been on the decline since his 64-yard and one touchdown performance in Week 1. Only time will tell how the Browns use him once he adjusts to the Cleveland way of suffering, I mean playing.
The real gainer here is Mohamed Massaquoi. Anderson neglected Edwards in favor of Massaquoi last week in Mo’s 148-yard breakout game. Massaquoi was a hot waiver wire grab going into this week, but his prospects just got hotter. Unlike Edwards, Massaquoi moves into a starring role in an offense with which he is already familiar.
As much as the Browns should have to pass this season, Massaquoi must be owned in all leagues moving forward and is desperately in need of a good nickname so that we don’t have to type out Massaquoi 10 times a day if he becomes a real fantasy stud.
While Edwards’ departure steals some talent away from the Browns roster, the fantasy impact should be minimal since Edwards just wasn’t being used enough to be a fantasy factor. Besides Massaquoi’s big jump in value and the potential for someone else on the Browns’ roster to step up in Edwards’ absence, Cleveland remains more of less unchanged.